Global warming

John Houghton0521528747, 9780521528740, 9780511216367

John Houghton explores the scientific basis of global warming and the likely impacts of climate change on human society in this comprehensive guide to the subject. He then addresses the action that could be taken by governments, industry and individuals to mitigate the effects of global warming. Previous Edition Hb (1997): 0-521-62089-9 Previous Edition Pb (1997): 0-521-62932-2

---

Table of contents :
Cover……Page 1
Half-title……Page 3
Title……Page 7
Copyright……Page 8
Dedication……Page 9
Contents……Page 11
Figures……Page 16
SI unit prefixes……Page 23
Chemical symbols……Page 24
Preface to the First Edition……Page 25
Preface to the Second Edition……Page 29
Preface to the Third Edition……Page 31
Is the climate changing?……Page 33
The remarkable last decades of the twentieth century……Page 34
El Nino events……Page 37
The effect of volcanic eruptions on temperature extremes……Page 39
Vulnerable to change……Page 40
The problem of global warming……Page 41
Adaptation and mitigation……Page 42
Questions……Page 44
Notes for Chapter 1……Page 45
How the Earth keeps warm……Page 46
The greenhouse effect……Page 48
Mars and Venus……Page 53
The ‘runaway’ greenhouse effect……Page 54
The enhanced greenhouse effect……Page 55
Questions……Page 57
Notes for Chapter 2……Page 58
Which are the most important greenhouse gases?……Page 60
Carbon dioxide and the carbon cycle……Page 61
Future emissions of carbon dioxide……Page 71
Methane……Page 74
Chloro.uorocarbons (CFCs) and ozone……Page 76
Gases with an indirect greenhouse effect……Page 79
Particles in the atmosphere17……Page 80
Estimates of radiative forcing……Page 83
Questions……Page 85
Notes for Chapter 3……Page 86
The last hundred years……Page 88
The last thousand years……Page 96
The past million years……Page 98
How stable has past climate been?……Page 103
Notes for Chapter 4……Page 107
Modelling the weather……Page 109
Seasonal forecasting……Page 117
The climate system……Page 120
Feedbacks in the climate system……Page 122
Water vapour feedback……Page 123
Ocean-circulation feedback……Page 125
Models for climate prediction……Page 127
Validation of the model……Page 132
Comparison with observations……Page 134
Is the climate chaotic?……Page 138
Regional climate modelling……Page 139
The future of climate modelling……Page 141
Questions……Page 142
Notes for Chapter 5……Page 143
Emission scenarios……Page 147
Model projections……Page 150
Projections of global average temperature……Page 152
Regional patterns of climate change……Page 156
Changes in climate extremes……Page 160
Regional climate models……Page 165
Longer-term climate change……Page 167
Changes in the ocean thermohaline circulation……Page 168
Other factors that might influence climate change……Page 169
Notes for Chapter 6……Page 172
A complex network of changes……Page 175
How much will sea level rise?……Page 177
The impacts of sea level rise……Page 182
Increasing human use of fresh water resources……Page 187
The impact of climate change on fresh water resources……Page 189
Impact on agriculture and food supply……Page 196
The impact on ecosystems……Page 202
The impact on human health……Page 208
Adaptation to climate change……Page 210
Costing the impacts: extreme events……Page 211
Costing the total impacts……Page 216
The overall impact of global warming……Page 219
Questions……Page 222
Notes for Chapter 7……Page 223
Earth in the balance……Page 229
Exploitation……Page 230
‘Back to nature’……Page 231
Future generations……Page 232
The unity of the Earth……Page 233
Environmental values……Page 237
Stewards of the Earth……Page 240
The will to act……Page 241
Questions……Page 243
Notes for Chapter 8……Page 244
The scientific uncertainty……Page 248
The IPCC assessments……Page 250
Narrowing the uncertainty……Page 254
Sustainable development……Page 257
Why not wait and see?……Page 259
The Precautionary Principle……Page 260
Some global economics……Page 262
Notes for Chapter 9……Page 271
The climate convention……Page 274
Stabilisation of emissions……Page 276
The Montreal Protocol……Page 277
The Kyoto Protocol……Page 278
Forests……Page 281
Reduction in the sources of methane……Page 285
Stabilisation of carbon dioxide concentrations……Page 286
The choice of stabilisation level……Page 289
Realising the Climate Convention Objective……Page 293
Summary of the action required……Page 295
Questions……Page 296
Notes for Chapter 10……Page 297
World energy demand and supply……Page 300
Future energy projections……Page 303
Energy conservation and efficiency in buildings……Page 310
Energy savings in transport……Page 315
Energy savings in industry……Page 316
Renewable energy……Page 321
Hydro-power……Page 323
Biomass as fuel……Page 325
Wind energy……Page 329
Energy from the Sun……Page 331
Other renewable energies……Page 337
The support and financing of renewable energy……Page 338
Nuclear energy……Page 340
Technology for the longer term……Page 342
Summary……Page 346
Questions……Page 347
Notes for Chapter 11……Page 349
The challenges of global warming……Page 354
Not the only global problem……Page 358
The conception and conduct of environmental research……Page 359
The goal of environmental stewardship……Page 360
Questions……Page 362
Notes for Chapter 12……Page 363
Glossary……Page 365
Index……Page 372