Catastrophes in nature and society: mathematical modeling of complex systems

A. I. Fet; Viktor A. Okhonin9789812569172, 981-256-917-0

Many people are concerned about crises leading to disasters in nature, in social and economic life. The book offers a popular account of the causative mechanisms of critical states and breakdown in a broad range of natural and cultural systems — which obey the same laws — and thus makes the reader aware of the origin of catastrophic events and the ways to avoid and mitigate their negative consequences. The authors apply a single mathematical approach to investigate the revolt of cancer cells that destroy living organisms and population outbreaks that upset natural ecosystems, the balance between biosphere and global climate interfered lately by industry, the driving mechanisms of market and related economic and social phenomena, as well as the electoral system the proper use of which is an arduous accomplishment of democracy.

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Table of contents :
Contents……Page 12
Preface……Page 8
Acknowledgments……Page 10
1. Environmental Microcatastrophes……Page 16
Phase portraits……Page 17
Reflection from bisector……Page 22
Simple population processes……Page 24
More complex population processes……Page 28
A case of erroneous ecological measures……Page 35
Classification of outbreaks……Page 36
Classification of population processes……Page 41
REFERENCES……Page 43
2. Cancer as a Catastrophe in Organisms……Page 45
Diffuse cancer……Page 47
Solid tumors……Page 52
Crossing the tissue interface……Page 56
Some special cases……Page 58
Prospects: prophylaxis of solid tumors……Page 61
REFERENCES……Page 62
3. Life and Atmosphere……Page 63
Earth’s heat budget and surface temperature……Page 65
Earth’s biota and a new stable temperature point……Page 67
Life and carbon dioxide……Page 71
Stable points of life……Page 74
Specified behavior of the curve C(T ): effect of glaciation……Page 75
Global temperature dynamics under the effect of biota……Page 77
REFERENCES……Page 80
Energy use……Page 82
Greenhouse effect: controls from technology……Page 91
Temperature rise and climate change……Page 94
Alternative power sources……Page 99
REFERENCES……Page 103
5. Dynamics of Atmospheric Ozone……Page 104
Ozone shield……Page 105
Ozone layer destruction……Page 107
Ozone holes……Page 111
Formation mechanisms of ozone holes: hypotheses……Page 112
A new method for tracing stratospheric air flows (Kashkin method)……Page 114
Global stratospheric dynamics: facts……Page 115
A hypothesis of the ozone hole formation in terms of air-flow dynamics……Page 119
References……Page 124
6. Closed Ecological Systems and Earth’s Biosphere……Page 126
Energy in space vehicles……Page 127
Life support systems……Page 130
Manmade closed biospheres……Page 137
1. Stationary civilization……Page 145
2. Closed civilization……Page 146
REFERENCES……Page 147
Modern man and environment……Page 148
Dynamics of environmental damage……Page 149
Environmental disaster……Page 162
8. Fining and Environment……Page 165
Economy and environment……Page 179
REFERENCES……Page 183
Market and optimization of production……Page 184
Prime cost……Page 190
Free market……Page 191
Postulates of free market……Page 192
Motives of competition……Page 194
Pricing mechanism……Page 197
Rent……Page 199
Population change……Page 203
Quality of commodities……Page 205
REFERENCE……Page 215
10. Marketing Dynamics……Page 216
Fair competition……Page 217
Unfair competition……Page 220
Labor market……Page 225
Wages……Page 228
Capitalistic production……Page 233
Expansion of production……Page 236
Quality and technology advance……Page 239
Theories of value……Page 243
Nature of capitalism……Page 245
Social significance of rent……Page 248
REFERENCES……Page 249
Problem of unemployment……Page 250
Earned income……Page 251
Environment and property……Page 256
Competition for resources……Page 258
Sharing land: optimum principle……Page 262
REFERENCES……Page 271
14. Long-term Motivation……Page 272
Parameter of egoism……Page 273
Planting forest……Page 282
Representative government……Page 287
Proportional and majority electoral systems……Page 291
Extreme case of a two-party system……Page 293
Conventionality of electoral procedures……Page 294
Method of statistical sample……Page 298
The Zipf–Pareto law……Page 303
The logic of decision making……Page 307
Comment……Page 312
A model of competition for votes between two similar parties……Page 313
REFERENCES……Page 319
Conclusion……Page 320
Index……Page 324