Scenario Logic and Probabilistic Management of Risk in Business and Engineering

E. D. Solojentsev (auth.)1402029780, 1402029772

In this volume the methodological aspects of the scenario logic and probabilistic (LP) non-success risk management are considered. The theoretical bases of scenario non-success risk LP-management in business and engineering are also stated. Methods and algorithms for the scenario risk LP-management in problems of classification, investment and effectiveness are described. Risk LP- models and results of numerical investigations for credit risks, risk of frauds, security portfolio risk, risk of quality, accuracy, and risk in multi-stage systems reliability are given. In addition, a rather large number of new problems of estimation, analysis and management of risk are considered. Software for risk problems based on LP-methods, LP-theory, and GIE is described too.

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Table of contents :
Introduction….Pages 1-8
Acronyms and general notations….Pages 9-10
Management and Risk….Pages 11-30
The Human Being and Risks….Pages 31-38
Principles of Risk Management in Design….Pages 39-63
Risk Management at Debugging Tests….Pages 65-94
Risk Management in Operation on Basis of Monitoring….Pages 95-106
Risk Management on Dangerous Plant….Pages 107-132
Bases of Logic and Probabilistic Calculus….Pages 133-149
Logic and Probabilistic Method and Risk….Pages 151-165
Automated Structural and Logical Modelling….Pages 167-189
Foundations of the Risk LP-Theogy with Groups of Incompatible Events….Pages 191-207
The Risk LP-Theory with GIE in the Classification Problem….Pages 209-221
Identification of Risk LP-Models with Groups of Incompatible Events….Pages 223-255
Risk Analysis in Systems with GIE….Pages 257-265
Software for Risk Analysis and Management….Pages 267-293
Risk LP-Models in Business….Pages 295-314
Logic and Probabilistic Theory of Security Portfolio Risk….Pages 315-334
Risk LP-Models in Engineering….Pages 335-352
Risk LP-Theory in Problems of Effectiveness….Pages 353-369
Conclusion….Pages 371-378