M.B. Beck (Eds.)9780080440866, 008044086X
Drawing upon case histories from the Great Lakes, acidic atmospheric deposition and, among others, the urban ozone problem, this discourse responds to a new agenda of questions. For example: “What system of ‘radar’ might we design to detect threats to the environment lying just beyond the ‘horizon’?” and “Are the seeds of structural change identifiable within the record of the recent past?”
Meticulously researched by leading environmental modellers, this milestone volume engages vigorously with its subject and offers an animated account of how models can begin to take into consideration the significant threats and uncertainties posed by structural change.
Table of contents :
Content:
Preface
Pages xiii-xvi
M.B. Beck
Chapter 1 Introduction Original Research Article
Pages 3-9
M.B. Beck
Chapter 2 We have a problem Original Research Article
Pages 11-33
M.B. Beck
Chapter 3 Beginnings of a change of perspective Original Research Article
Pages 35-50
M.B. Beck
Chapter 4 Structural change: A definition Original Research Article
Pages 51-60
M.B. Beck
Chapter 5 The manifesto Original Research Article
Pages 61-93
M.B. Beck
Chapter 6 Epilogue Original Research Article
Pages 95-102
M.B. Beck
Chapter 7 Lake Erie and evolving issues of the quality of its water Original Research Article
Pages 105-130
W.M. Schertzer, D.C.L. Lam
Chapter 8 Impacts of acidic atmospheric deposition on the chemical composition of stream water and soil water Original Research Article
Pages 131-145
G.M. Hornberger
Chapter 9 The ozone problem Original Research Article
Pages 147-165
R.L. Dennis
Chapter 10 Belief networks: Generating the feared dislocations Original Research Article
Pages 169-205
O. Varis
Chapter 11 Random search and the reachability of target futures Original Research Article
Pages 207-226
M.B. Beck, J. Chen, O.O. Osidele
Chapter 12 Uncertainty and the detection of structural change in models of environmental systems Original Research Article
Pages 227-250
K.J. Beven
Chapter 13 Simplicity out of complexity Original Research Article
Pages 251-301
P.C. Young, S. Parkinson
Chapter 14 Structural effects of landscape and land use on streamflow response Original Research Article
Pages 303-321
T.S. Kokkonen, A.J. Jakeman
Chapter 15 Elasto-plastic deformation of structure Original Research Article
Pages 323-350
M.B. Beck, J.D. Stigter, D. Lloyd Smith
Chapter 16 Detecting and forecasting growth in the seeds of change Original Research Article
Pages 351-373
J. Chen, M.B. Beck
Chapter 17 Probing the shores of ignorance Original Research Article
Pages 375-412
R.L. Dennis, J.R. Arnold, G.S. Tonnesen
Chapter 18 Parametric change as the agent of control Original Research Article
Pages 415-424
K.J. Keesman
Chapter 19 Identifying the inclination of a system towards a terminal state from current observations Original Research Article
Pages 425-451
A.V. Kryazhimskii, M.B. Beck
Contributing authors — Biosketches
Pages 453-459
Subject index
Pages 461-473
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