Environmental Foresight and Models: A Manifesto

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Edition: 1

Series: Developments in Environmental Modelling 22

ISBN: 9780080440866, 008044086X

Size: 31 MB (32023838 bytes)

Pages: 3-473/459

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M.B. Beck (Eds.)9780080440866, 008044086X

Policy-makers and the public, it has famously been said, are more interested in the possibility of non-linear dislocations and surprises in the behaviour of the environment than in smooth extrapolations of current trends. The International Task Force in Forecasting Environmental Change (1993-1998) dedicated its work to developing procedures of model building capable of addressing our palpable concerns for substantial change in the future. This volume discusses the immense challenges that such structural change presents – that the behaviour of the environment may become radically different from that observed in the past – and investigates the potentially profound implications for model development.
Drawing upon case histories from the Great Lakes, acidic atmospheric deposition and, among others, the urban ozone problem, this discourse responds to a new agenda of questions. For example: “What system of ‘radar’ might we design to detect threats to the environment lying just beyond the ‘horizon’?” and “Are the seeds of structural change identifiable within the record of the recent past?”
Meticulously researched by leading environmental modellers, this milestone volume engages vigorously with its subject and offers an animated account of how models can begin to take into consideration the significant threats and uncertainties posed by structural change.

Table of contents :
Content:
Preface
Pages xiii-xvi
M.B. Beck

Chapter 1 Introduction Original Research Article
Pages 3-9
M.B. Beck

Chapter 2 We have a problem Original Research Article
Pages 11-33
M.B. Beck

Chapter 3 Beginnings of a change of perspective Original Research Article
Pages 35-50
M.B. Beck

Chapter 4 Structural change: A definition Original Research Article
Pages 51-60
M.B. Beck

Chapter 5 The manifesto Original Research Article
Pages 61-93
M.B. Beck

Chapter 6 Epilogue Original Research Article
Pages 95-102
M.B. Beck

Chapter 7 Lake Erie and evolving issues of the quality of its water Original Research Article
Pages 105-130
W.M. Schertzer, D.C.L. Lam

Chapter 8 Impacts of acidic atmospheric deposition on the chemical composition of stream water and soil water Original Research Article
Pages 131-145
G.M. Hornberger

Chapter 9 The ozone problem Original Research Article
Pages 147-165
R.L. Dennis

Chapter 10 Belief networks: Generating the feared dislocations Original Research Article
Pages 169-205
O. Varis

Chapter 11 Random search and the reachability of target futures Original Research Article
Pages 207-226
M.B. Beck, J. Chen, O.O. Osidele

Chapter 12 Uncertainty and the detection of structural change in models of environmental systems Original Research Article
Pages 227-250
K.J. Beven

Chapter 13 Simplicity out of complexity Original Research Article
Pages 251-301
P.C. Young, S. Parkinson

Chapter 14 Structural effects of landscape and land use on streamflow response Original Research Article
Pages 303-321
T.S. Kokkonen, A.J. Jakeman

Chapter 15 Elasto-plastic deformation of structure Original Research Article
Pages 323-350
M.B. Beck, J.D. Stigter, D. Lloyd Smith

Chapter 16 Detecting and forecasting growth in the seeds of change Original Research Article
Pages 351-373
J. Chen, M.B. Beck

Chapter 17 Probing the shores of ignorance Original Research Article
Pages 375-412
R.L. Dennis, J.R. Arnold, G.S. Tonnesen

Chapter 18 Parametric change as the agent of control Original Research Article
Pages 415-424
K.J. Keesman

Chapter 19 Identifying the inclination of a system towards a terminal state from current observations Original Research Article
Pages 425-451
A.V. Kryazhimskii, M.B. Beck

Contributing authors — Biosketches
Pages 453-459

Subject index
Pages 461-473

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