Impact of Equipment Availability and Reliability on Mission Outcomes: An Initial Look

Charles T. Kelley, Rand Corporation0833034723, 9780833034724

This documented briefing describes an initial effort to understand analytically how start-of-mission availability and during-mission reliability of Army equipment affect ground combat capability and to assess consequent implications for current and future forces. Combat results were simulated using the JANUS model and scenarios available from prior research. The principal scenario for the analysis was a forced entry by U.S. forces into rough and heavily foliaged terrain to neutralize Red forces and stop ethnic cleansing. A second scenario considered an offensive mission in more open terrain. The briefing then draws upon broader reasoning and approximate analysis to suggest tentative conclusions, and it recommends features of more detailed work.