Demographic forecasting

Federico Girosi, Gary King0691130949, 9780691130941, 9780691130958, 0691130957

Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance.

By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts.
Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more

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Table of contents :
9780691130941……Page 1
prelims……Page 2
chapter1……Page 22
chapter2……Page 40
chapter3……Page 64
chapter4……Page 76
chapter5……Page 95
chapter6……Page 115
chapter7……Page 145
chapter8……Page 166
chapter9……Page 180
chapter10……Page 191
chapter11……Page 196
chapter12……Page 217
chapter13……Page 232
appendixa……Page 234
appendixb……Page 240
appendixc……Page 262
appendixd……Page 268
appendixe……Page 270
bibliography……Page 272
index……Page 280