Statistical Models in Counterterrorism: Game Theory, Modeling, Syndromic Surveillance and Biometric Authentication

Alyson Wilson, Gregory Wilson, David H. Olwell0387329048, 9780387329048, 9780387352091

All the data was out there to warn us of this impending attack, why didn’t we see it?” This was a frequently asked question in the weeks and months after the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001. In the wake of the attacks, statisticians moved quickly to become part of the national response to the global war on terror. This book is an overview of the emerging research program at the intersection of national security and statistical sciences. A wide range of talented researchers address issues in- Syndromic Surveillance – How do we detect and recognize bioterrorist events?- Modeling and Simulation – How do we better understand and explain complex processes so that decision makers can take the best course of action?- Biometric Authentication – How do we pick the terrorist out of the crowd of faces or better match the passport to the traveler?- Game Theory – How do we understand the rules that terrorists are playing by?This book includes technical treatments of statistical issues that will be of use to quantitative researchers as well as more general examinations of quantitative approaches to counterterrorism that will be accessible to decision makers with stronger policy backgrounds.Dr. Alyson G. Wilson is a statistician and the technical lead for DoD programs in the Statistical Sciences Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Dr. Gregory D. Wilson is a rhetorician and ethnographer in the Statistical Sciences Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Dr. David H. Olwell is chair of the Department of Systems Engineering at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California.

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Table of contents :
Contents……Page 10
Part I. Game Theory……Page 12
Game Theory in an Age of Terrorism: How Can Statisticians Contribute?……Page 13
Combining Game Theory and Risk Analysis in Counterterrorism: A Smallpox Example……Page 18
Game-Theoretic and Reliability Methods in Counterterrorism and Security……Page 32
Part II. Biometric Authentication……Page 50
Biometric Authentication……Page 51
Towards Statistically Rigorous Biometric Authentication Using Facial Images……Page 54
Recognition Problem of Biometrics: Nonparametric Dependence Measures and Aggregated Algorithms……Page 87
Part III. Syndromic Surveillance……Page 104
Data Analysis Research Issues and Emerging Public Health Biosurveillance Directions……Page 105
Current and Potential Statistical Methods for Monitoring Multiple Data Streams for Biosurveillance……Page 112
Evaluating Statistical Methods for Syndromic Surveillance……Page 144
A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Syndromic Data for Biosurveillance……Page 176
Part IV. Modeling……Page 195
Modeling and Simulation for Defense and National Security……Page 196
Modeling and Parameterization for a Smallpox Simulation Study……Page 200
Approaches to Modeling the Concentration Field for Adaptive Sampling of Contaminants during Site Decontamination……Page 215
Secure Statistical Analysis of Distributed Databases……Page 236
Statistical Evaluation of the Impact of Background Suppression on the Sensitivity of Passive Radiation Detectors……Page 261
B……Page 279
C……Page 280
E……Page 281
G……Page 282
I……Page 283
L……Page 284
M……Page 285
P……Page 286
R……Page 287
S……Page 288
V……Page 289
Z……Page 290